The Palestinian Authority Lied About Arab Population Totals. Why Did Israel Accept It?

For decades, Israeli leaders and international experts warned that demographics made extending sovereignty over Judea and Samaria impossible. The accepted wisdom was that 3 million Arabs lived there, creating an inevitable path toward an Arab majority. Yet as tech investor and Temple Mount activist Mike Wise revealed in a conversation with One Jewish State, that number was not only wrong but dramatically inflated.

Questioning the Official Population Numbers of Judea and Samaria

The story began in the early 2000s when Wise was presenting his “one state plan” at a conference near Tel Aviv. Critics dismissed his proposal on demographic grounds, arguing that millions of Arabs in Judea and Samaria made it unrealistic.

Unconvinced, Wise began looking deeper into the numbers. He consulted academic experts such as Professor Arnon Soffer, who argued that demographic collapse, not security, was the primary reason for building barriers. The fear of an Arab majority dominated the debate.

In this episode of the One Jewish State podcast, Sam Schubert sits down with Mike Wise, a tech investor, physicist, and Temple Mount activist who uncovered one of the most shocking demographic fabrications in recent Israeli history.

Building the Case

Wise soon connected with researchers who were independently checking population statistics. Together they examined vital data sets: birth and death certificates, emigration records, immigration figures, and voter rolls.

What they found challenged the prevailing narrative. Instead of 3 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, the real number appeared closer to 1.4 million. The gap was over a million people. Their methodology was simple: start with a baseline population and update annually with verifiable data. Even Palestinian Ministry of Health reports confirmed steady birth records consistent with their findings.

Presenting the Findings

In January 2005, Wise and his colleagues presented their analysis at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Shortly afterward, they testified before Knesset committees, debating leading demographers and laying out their evidence in detail. To their surprise, Israeli officials admitted they had never conducted independent research. Instead, they had relied entirely on Palestinian Authority numbers without verification.

Why the Numbers Were Inflated

According to Wise, the Palestinian Authority had clear political motives. In the 1990s, Israel absorbed over one million immigrants from the former Soviet Union, altering the demographic balance.

By projecting inflated Arab population figures, Palestinian officials could strengthen their claim that Israel faced an unavoidable demographic time bomb. That narrative still circulates today, shaping both international discourse and Israeli policymaking.

The Larger Implications

If the real population of Judea and Samaria is closer to 1.4 million, the demographic threat long used as a barrier to sovereignty is far less daunting.

More importantly, it raises a fundamental question: how did Israel allow an unverified statistic to shape its national security doctrine for decades? The answer suggests that numbers, when left unchecked, can be as powerful as armies in shaping the course of history.